Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 21.530090 23.531357 25.761258 28.456531 31.662946 35.404537 40.177109
2025-01-05 18.565604 21.168613 24.296280 28.425374 33.890096 41.132338 51.969907
2025-01-12 16.332276 19.162639 22.746622 27.796275 35.067812 45.825331 64.629698
2025-01-19 15.374738 18.531520 22.736004 29.063293 39.043376 55.849349 92.054230
2025-01-26 14.174980 17.390949 21.822007 28.804925 40.588269 62.614443 120.283877
2025-02-02 13.319090 16.597712 21.254019 28.910979 42.704285 71.458217 166.974846
2025-02-09 12.652804 15.986236 20.850613 29.170390 45.135045 82.437452 250.112546
2025-02-16 12.048611 15.397759 20.397586 29.243605 47.210220 94.123302 401.359879
2025-02-23 11.431296 14.732953 19.746481 28.849328 48.188760 103.701741 662.674209
2025-03-02 10.973765 14.268482 19.361744 28.869450 50.102180 118.337128 1641.129428
2025-03-09 10.522523 13.778693 18.885568 28.638635 51.362332 132.363841 10450.936179
2025-03-16 10.103156 13.309224 18.400053 28.317227 52.316174 146.830643 NaN
2025-03-23 9.723966 12.884927 17.965369 28.059626 53.452957 165.073168 NaN
2025-03-30 9.388453 12.510232 17.586600 27.869006 54.761882 188.003741 NaN
2025-04-06 9.006595 12.041153 17.009961 27.191491 54.463509 200.667954 NaN
2025-04-13 8.929223 12.055937 17.283091 28.378555 60.426790 288.574291 NaN
2025-04-20 8.654639 11.733477 16.925853 28.115649 61.542584 337.510674 NaN
2025-04-27 8.447723 11.511681 16.735668 28.210834 64.020132 432.265526 NaN
2025-05-04 8.274014 11.335751 16.616537 28.456705 67.236619 601.841058 NaN
2025-05-11 8.090168 11.133577 16.433675 28.525565 69.844654 855.064679 NaN
2025-05-18 7.866004 10.853474 16.085759 28.146777 70.436598 1091.743449 NaN
2025-05-25 7.700556 10.666279 15.904243 28.165812 72.885810 1804.619360 NaN
2025-06-01 7.518463 10.443165 15.640241 27.944244 74.166434 3036.307216 NaN